Fear gauge India VIX spiked around 9% on Friday, rising for the seventh consecutive session, as build-up of expectations for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections propelled volatile swings. In seven sessions, the volatility index has soared 43% to 14.62. This comes just after it crashed 20% on April 23 to register its biggest single-day slump in 5 years.
Experts said though the market is anticipating a third term for the ruling party, expectations are getting built-up on the number of seats that it will win, which will be important from the perspective of having policy continuity.
While India VIX rose, benchmark indices skidded around 1% on profit booking. Nifty hit a record high level of 22,794.70 points intraday, before shedding its gains and falling 0.8% to 22,475.85 points. Even Sensex fell over 1,200 points from its day’s high to close the session 1% lower at 73,878.15 points.
“There is no major negative factor in the market given that earnings have also been largely in line and crude price has also fallen,” said Sunny Agrawal, head of fundamental equity research at SBICAPS Securities.
India VIX is usually higher ahead of key major events like General Elections or Union Budget. However, the past two weeks has seen sharp volatile swings, which has caught some market participants by surprise.
“In the near-term market will look for exit polls, before making any aggressive buy, as investors will need confirmation of policy continuity,” said Priyam Shah, partner at Falcon Capital Partners.
Experts said the volatility is likely to persist in the near-term. Apart from General Elections, expectations on the global interest rates is also driving uncertainty, according to market participants.
“The elevated bond yields in the US is actually creating jittery situation all across. That is one main reason…. Over the last few months, market is realizing that bond yields might not come down as quickly as market is anticipating,” said Sahaj Agrawal, head of research, derivatives at Kotak Securities.
Agrawal said 22,100 points is a strong support level for Nifty from near-term perspective. “If that breaks, then the overall trend of the market could come under question,”he said.
The heavyweight stocks like Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro, and HDFC Bank were the biggest laggards for Nifty on Friday. While BSE Midcap index fell 0.2%, BSE Smallcap index ended 0.6% lower.